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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.