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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."